Costco is expected to deliver another quarter of growth against an uncertain consumer environment

Costco ( COST ) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal results as inflation-weary shoppers turn to the wholesaler.

Adjusted earnings per shares are expected to come in at $3.81, according to the Bloomberg consensus estimate. Revenue is expected to reach $62.14 billion. Same-store sales, excluding fuel, are expected to grow 6.26%, boosted by its international business, followed by the US and Canada.

The company is expected to clock higher foot traffic in the quarter, up 6.87% compared to a year ago. But Wall Street expects transaction growth to fall 0.40 percent.

Year to date, Costco shares are up more than 50%, outpacing the 27% gain of the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Here’s what Wall Street expects Costco to report for its fiscal first quarter, which ended Dec. 4, 2024, compared to the prior year’s fiscal first quarter results:

Income: $62.14 billion versus $57.8 billion last year

Adjusted earnings per share: $3.81 vs. $3.58

Total company comparable sales growth, excluding fuel: 6.26% vs. 3.9%

• US same-store sales growth: 6.14% vs. 2.6%

• Same-store sales growth in Canada: 5.68% vs. 8.2%

• Other international sales growth: 7.08% vs. 7.1%

Growth in e-commerce: 14.1% versus 6.3%

Income from membership fees: $1.17 billion versus $1.08 billion

On September 1, Costco raised the price of its Gold Star membership by $5 to $65 and the price of its Executive membership by $10 to $130. Wall Street expects the increase to be reflected in this quarter’s results.

It was the first time the company raised its membership fees since 2017, and Costco said it was delaying the increase until the team felt inflation was beginning to dissipate and consumer spending power was returning.

As of the previous quarter, the change is expected to affect around 52 million memberships, just over half of which are Executive memberships. The fee increase is expected to increase member income by high single digits to low double digits.

Membership dues are expected to come in at $1.17 billion, up from the $1.08 billion reported last year.

The company also doubled down on scanning membership cards at the door, which CEO Ron Vachris said allowed operators to recognize foot traffic in real time and prompt customers to renew memberships.

“Membership growth remains healthy as consumers seek value and existing members continue to trade up to the Executive membership level,” Joseph Feldman of Telesey Advisory Group wrote in a note to clients.

Costco operates 891 warehouses worldwide as of last quarter. Wall Street expects it to grow to 895.

Its e-commerce business is also expected to have another stellar quarter, up 14.1%. Sales in the previous quarter were driven by growth in appliances, tires, toys, gift cards and food, health and beauty aids, among other things like bullion.

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