The Warriors’ ‘deep’ roster has written checks, Steph Curry and Draymond Green are struggling to cash

After a hot start in which the Golden State Warriors seemed to perform above their abilities — that is, having a uniquely elite roster advantage complemented by a role player who doesn’t particularly excel in one skill set — the world appears to be crashing down to where most people expected them to be heading into this season.

It has been a function of several things. First, one of those role players in De’Anthony Melton turned out to be their best offseason signing, a two-way two-guard with ball-handling skills in a pinch, three-point shooting and an ability to defend the opposition. the team’s best perimeter scorer. But with an ACL sprain that forced him to opt for surgery, Melton has been completely taken out of the equation this season. Another development (or rather, the lack of): the slower-than-expected emergence of the youth movement. It’s one thing for second-year players in Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis to be in a funk in just their second year as pros; it’s another when Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody — fourth-year NBA players — have struggled to capture the stability expected of them. The calculated gamble the organization made in drafting them (ie becoming capable two-way backups to their aging stars and transitioning to franchise cornerstones) has hit a snag.

These issues are part of an overall roster issue that plays an indirect role in Steph Curry and Draymond Green’s aging curve. The lack of scoring support has forced Curry — 36 years old and turning 37 in March — to carry the load most nights, at an age where wear and tear is starting to rear its ugly head. To a lesser, albeit important, extent, Green has also been forced to put out fires that he rarely starts. Although he is younger than Curry at 34 years old, the physicality of his game and years of bumping bodies with bigger front players have aged him quickly.

On-off stats have never captured the importance of Curry and Green being on the floor at all times than this season, when — heading into the game against Phoenix Suns – The Warriors have outscored opponents by 12.6 points per game. 100 possessions in 351 minutes by the Curry-Green duo. On the other hand, in the 293 minutes Curry and Green have both sat out, the Warriors have been outscored by 0.4 points per game. 100 possessions – practically a net neutral in such minutes. That means the team is 13 points per 100 possessions worse without their two franchise cornerstones.

The fact that the Warriors can’t find stability beyond Curry and Green is a guard question. Depth was touted this season as a big plus; Playing 12-to-13 players is unprecedented by an NBA team in the regular season, but Steve Kerr and his coaching staff were convinced it masked problems such as the lack of a secondary shot creator/scorer beyond Curry and the revolving door of centers . it has forced Green to increase in size and continue to beat bodies with bigger opponents. Such a problem often translates into execution problems on both ends.

For example: without Curry and Green on the floor, the Warriors offense has only managed to score 103.5 points per possession. 100 possessions, tied for the worst offense in the league (as opposed to 124.9 points per 100 possessions with them on the floor). Defensively, a pattern has been emerging: an extremely slow start in the first half, followed by a course correction in the second half. The former is certainly a problem, while the latter has been accompanied by the aforementioned offensive problem that has resulted in rallies falling short.

In his postgame comments following the Suns game, Green touted their inability to defend line drives. No possession captures that problem better than this one that resulted in a Suns corner three:

While overhelp is certainly an issue — look at Gary Payton II above sinking too deep in the paint and falling victim to a long, hard finish — it’s Lindy Waters III’s inability to keep Devin Booker from blowing by at the point of attack that starts the chain reaction of scrambles and rotations.

Kerr mentioned after the game that some measures were taken to address the problem with the defense in the first half (where the Warriors allowed the Suns to score a whopping 137.5 points per 100 possessions). One adjustment was to put Kevon Looney at the five and change the pick-and-roll coverages accordingly. This change came in the form of Looney playing a higher form of drop coverage where the ball defender “weakened” the ball handler off the screen (“weak” in this sense would mean shadowing the ball handler against his weak hand). Such changes in personnel and coverages got the Warriors off to a good defensive start that continued the rest of the second half (94.0 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Along with scoring 112 points per 100 possessions allowed the Warriors to outscore the Suns by a total of nine points — which wasn’t enough to make up for the 17-point hole they dug in the first half (largely caused by the 100 points per 100 possessions they only able to muster against the Suns).

Curry’s slow start and Green’s inability to cover every single base left exposed on defense by himself exposes the problems throughout the roster. There is only so much a hot start and variance can account for before everything is undone. It may still be premature to conclude that the Warriors are in free fall — after all, they still have a record well over .500. But they’re dangerously close to tipping toward that territory if Curry and Green can’t cash the checks the rest of the roster has written.