Texas A&M vs. Texas, Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee predictions: College football odds, picks

On By Littum

Texas is still overrated.

The Longhorns have played a ridiculously easy schedule, with five of their six SEC wins coming against teams with losing records.

Texas A&M will be the best defense Texas has faced all season.

After posting questionable offensive numbers against Arkansas (4.2 yards per play), Vanderbilt (5.6 yards per play) and Georgia (3.4 yards per play), I don’t see the ‘Horns showing up in a harsh road environment. It’s also worth mentioning that Quinn Ewers is dealing with a nagging ankle injury.

I don’t love the Aggies offense, but I upgraded them after switching from Connor Weigman to Marcel Reed at quarterback.

Reed can be very effective running an RPO-based scheme, as seen in last week’s road matchup with a borderline-elite Auburn defense (41 points, 7.8 yards per play, 55% success rate).

Texas A&M also has a significant advantage on special teams, the always underrated third phase of the game.

For what it’s worth, Mike Elko’s Duke team went 3-1 against the spread as a home deficit, covering over 10 points per game. match average.

The pick: Texas A&M +5.5


Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed passes the ball to running back Amari Daniels during warmups before the Aggies' game against Auburn on Nov. 23, 2024, in Auburn, Ala.
Marcel Reed passes the ball to running back Amari Daniels during warmups before Texas A&M’s 43-41 loss to Auburn in four overtimes. Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Air Force (-4.5) over SAN DIEGO STATE

San Diego State is a terrible two-way football team.

Nevertheless, the Aztecs are most vulnerable to opposing rushing attacks, ranking 118th nationally in EPA per. Rushes Allowed, 112th in Rush Success Rate and 130th in Stuff Rate.

That doesn’t bode well against a triple-option offense.

Although Air Force has been virtually lifeless for most of the season, the Falcons have improved as the season has progressed, winning three consecutive games as underdogs — including a 36-28 victory over Fresno State as 10-point underdogs for three weeks since.

Meanwhile, San Diego State has lost five straight games, including three by over 20 points.

VANDERBILT (+11) over Tennessee

Diego Pavia’s Commodores are auto-bets as big underdogs.

They run a down-tempo, rush-heavy, quasi-triple-option offense that shortens the game, churns the clock, limits possessions and makes it difficult for opposing offenses to build margin.

As such, Vanderbilt is 7-1 against the spread as an underdog this season.

Bet on college football?

Even though Tennessee boasts an elite defense, I’m constantly underwhelmed by Nico Iamaleava and the Volunteers offense, which means they don’t project well as a heavy favorite.

As such, the Vols are 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in SEC play.

Last week: 1-1. Kansas (W), Northwestern (L)
2024 season: 21-15.