On/off stats reveal the glaring Julius Randle revelation

In the early parts of the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves haven’t exactly found their groove with their new starting lineup yet. As a very different player than Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle’s incorporation into the rotation has likely been much more difficult than meets the eye.

Getting other lineups to fit together has also been a challenge. Many have been harsh critics of Chris Finch so far this year, but this was never going to be an overnight problem. Ideally, it will be cleaned up in time for the Wolves to still return to the playoffs in April. Right now they are in 11th place in the Western Conference standings outside the play-in area.

There have been several rebounding issues Minnesota has dealt with over the past five weeks, but getting Randle to work has arguably been one of the biggest. The style he plays doesn’t necessarily work as seamlessly next to Rudy Gobert as Towns did, and there are some troubling numbers accompanying the eye test.

Using on/off statistics, we can accurately measure the effectiveness of certain players by measuring how the team performs when they are on the floor versus when they are on the bench. Using data from the NBA’s official website, we can see that lineups where Randle and Gobert are on the floor register an offensive rating of 114.4, a defensive rating of 113 along with a +1.4 in plus/minus.

For those unfamiliar with this statistic, a high offensive rating is indicative of a strong performance, while the same goes for a low defensive rating. Looking at other pairings, Randle and Naz Reid have posted a 119.8 offensive rating and a dismal 124.1 defensive rating to go along with a -4.4 plus/minus. Statistically, Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert have been the Timberwolves’ best overall pairing, with an offensive rating of 111, a defensive rating of 105 and a +6.6 plus/minus.

This tells us that Randle has struggled on the defensive end, which is consistent with what we’ve seen on the hardwood. This is obviously a worrying development, but not one that cannot be rectified.

Finch still has a long way to go to turn this squad into a top defensive team again. Obviously, finding lineups where Randle’s current lack of defense becomes less of a factor is a priority. As the season goes on, it also feels likely that he will simply settle in and become more comfortable on that side of the ball as well.