Funnel defense report: Week 13

In our eternal mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble opinion, a good place to start.

We find defenses every season profiled as a so-called running outfit, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for passing funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).

Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. This funnel defense analysis shouldn’t be the end goal of how you decide your weekly fantasy plays. It’s just another data point in your brain-rattling decision-making about who to play and who to bench.

Pass Funnel Matchups

Panthers vs. Bucs

Covering the Panthers-Chiefs game on Sunday, I almost felt bad for all the disparaging remarks I had made in Bryce Young’s direction over the last year and a half. The guy who had in no way resembled a viable NFL quarterback picked apart a solid-if-unspectacular Kansas City coverage unit with anticipatory throws, strong throws into tight windows and audibles at the line of scrimmage as Chiefs defenders threatened all-around flash. .

Young, coming off Carolina’s bye, was a brand new quarterback. I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say Young’s Week 12 performance — 263 yards and a touchdown, 3.5 percent above his expected completion rate — was career-changing. It might have been the best development for the Panthers in a decade.

Carolina was 7 percent above its expected pass rate in their narrow loss to the mock-elite Chiefs, the highest mark of their 2024 season. And Young’s 8.8 air yards per attempts were up from his career average of 7.6. That’s all very well for Young and his pass catchers.

Now, Young and the Panthers get a matchup against the league’s second most extreme pass rush defense. Bucs opponents in 2024 have been above their expected pass percentage in eight of 11 games, and no team has had a higher neutral pass rate. Teams have targeted the Tampa secondary for good reason: Only the Patriots and Bills are allowing a higher-than-expected completion rate, and only three teams are giving up a higher pass EPA. In a game that has seen its Vegas total increase from 44 to 46.5 points over the past few days, Panthers-Bucs might even have shootout potential, or something close to it. That makes Young a sneaky superflex option.

Journeyman WR David Moore in Week 12 was by some measure Carolina’s top target earner. He saw ten looks from Young and caught the team’s lone passing score (and should have had another). Moore, who ran a full set of pass routes against the Chiefs, could be interesting this week if Jalen Coker (quad) remains out.

It was Xavier Legette and Moore operating in two wideout sets for Carolina last week, while Adam Thielen mixed in as the team’s primary playmaking machine. The problem for Thielen: The Panthers used three-receiver sets on just 70 percent of their offensive snaps. It’s hard to pinpoint which Carolina pass catchers would benefit from a pass-heavy Week 13 approach. Any of Thielene, Moore and Legette could see surprising use against Tampa. Tommy Tremble, meanwhile, will run as the team’s TE1 with Ja’Tavion Sanders (neck) sidelined. That Tremble has seen a target on 11 percent of his routes this season doesn’t inspire much confidence.

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Commanders vs. Titans

Washington, as we’ve established in this room, wants to run the ball more than any team since the 1949 Bears. According to reports, Arthur Smith believes that the commanders’ commitment to the run is “a little much.”

Kliff Kingsbury may be forced to throw the ball a little more than usual in Week 13 against a Titans defense that has become one of the NFL’s most pronounced passing funnels. Only four defenses rank as more extreme pass rushers through Week 12; four of the last five teams to face the Titans have been above their expected pass rate.

We have seen Kliffs Commanders lean into the pass against other pastragtes. In Week 6 against the Ravens, Jayden Daniels had 35 pass attempts as Washington was nearly 8 percent above its expected pass rate. A few weeks later, Daniels had a season-high 38 attempts against the Bears, where the Commanders went 10 percent above their expected pass rate.

Possibly without Brian Robinson (knee) and facing a Tennessee defense that allows the NFL’s fourth-lowest rush success rate, we should get another 30-plus-attempt outing from Daniels — barring, of course, funky playwriting (always a possibility with Will Levis on the field ) other side of the ball).

This likely translates into what the zoomers are calling a “giga smash spot” for Terry McLaurin. It also cements Zach Ertz, the last great millennial NFL player, in play as a 12-team starter. Noah Brown, who had a team-leading ten goals last week against Dallas, should be a viable flex option in deeper formats against the pass funnel Titans.

Run Funnel Matchups

Saints vs. Rams

I have to admit, the Rams have snuck up on me as a reliable running back. Sean Mcvay’s defense is now the league’s fifth-most extreme running outfit — a trend I didn’t predict with the Rams secondary being so passable.

Five of the last six teams that have played LA have been below their expected passing rate (PROE). That includes the Ravens in Week 12, who were -14 percent PROE against the Rams, their second run-heavy game of the season. Teams attack a Rams defense allowing the NFL’s fifth-most rushing yards before contact since Week 6.

That should continue in Week 13. And the primary beneficiaries are obvious: Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, who combined for 35 touches the last time the Saints played. The New Orleans offense has been passing the ball at a low 52 percent rate in neutral scrimmages since Derek Carr’s return to the lineup in Week 9. If that continues here, with the Saints listed as 1.5-point underdogs, Hill and Kamara should be in for workloads.

Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi on Tuesday delivered a body blow to the few remaining Taysom doubters out there, saying Hill would continue to be a “huge part of what we do” and that his use in Weeks 10-11 would follow until morale improves . He is a must-start in 12-team formats against the run funnel Rams.

Colts vs. Patriots

Jonathan Taylor’s cartoonists have muttered under their breath, in public spaces no less, about the process. Taylor’s 56 rushes from Weeks 9-12 rank third among all running backs; his 206 rushing yards ranks eighth, and he doesn’t have a single touchdown to show for any of it.

Taylor continues to dominate the backfield in a Colts offense with the fourth-lowest passing rate above expectations. Ultimately, it’s going to pay off, and it could be as soon as Week 13 against a New England defense that’s seeing teams run the ball at the fourth-highest rate in neutral games this season.

The Colts, with a pass rate of 53 percent in neutral situations since Week 9, should be massively run heavy against the Pats unless things go sideways for Anthony Richardson and company. New England’s defense has been pretty stingy this year in yards before contact, although they are allowing the fifth-highest rate of yards after contact per snap. rush. It’s undeniably a good spot for Taylor, who should remain in all lineups.

Bills vs. 49ers

The Niners march east to have their collective bums handed to them by a red-hot Bills team that is taking no prisoners at the moment. Entering as 8.5-point favorites, Buffalo is more than a little likely to lean heavily on the run against San Francisco, the league’s second-most prolific run defense.

It’s a nice bounce back spot for James Cook after he was held to 20 yards on nine rushing attempts in Week 11 against Kansas City. Maybe you didn’t notice since he scored two touchdowns and got away with it. Cook should have volume on his side against a Niners defense that has seen eight of 11 opponents go below their projected passer rating in 2024.

A run-first script for Buffalo would clearly limit the passing volume that has fueled recent (relatively) big performances from Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Be careful how you deploy Buffalo pass catchers against a 49ers defense that has seen the 10th fewest pass attempts per game. game.