Mississippi State vs Mississippi College Football Week 14 Predictions, Picks, Odds

It’s a travesty, the Egg Bowl will not be played on Thanksgiving this year. Instead, the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Mississippi Rebels will battle this afternoon.

After a stunning loss to Florida last week, the Rebels’ CFP odds are next to non-existent, and my Mississippi State vs. Mississippi believes the Bulldogs have value as major underdogs.

Check out my college football picks for Nov. 29 below. Kickoff is scheduled from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, where the game will be broadcast on ABC.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi Prediction and Best Bets

Who will win Mississippi State vs Mississippi?

This year’s edition of the Egg Bowl has a nearly four touchdown spread… so yeah, I’m picking Mississippi to win the game.

The Rebels are clearly on another level in terms of talent and rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive success rates.

But as I’ll explain in a moment, Mississippi’s motivations are certainly in question, with the College Football Playoff seemingly out of reach and a horde of transfers who might not care too much about this rivalry.

So while Mississippi should win, don’t be shocked if the game is closer than expected.

My best bet
Mississippi State +26.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Selections made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Despite a few losses and the lopsided nature of the SEC this season, the path for the Mississippi Rebels to reach the College Football Playoff was clear: Beat Florida and win the Egg Bowl to end the season and you’re in the 12-team field.

However, the Swamp seemed to give the Rebels heat stroke as they threw up all over themselves in a stunning loss to the Gators. And suddenly, Mississippi is on the outside looking in on the CFP, and a postseason berth feels unlikely.

So it makes me question how motivated the Rebels will be for this game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Now, Mississippi is nearly a four-touchdown favorite for a reason: The Rebels have more talent, a dynamic QB in Jaxson Dart and one of the best defenses in the country.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State can’t stop anyone and has just one FBS win this season against UMass. That said, despite not having a conference win to speak of, the Bulldogs have played better in SEC play and are 5-2 against the spread — including 4-0 ATS when scored 21 points or more.

Interestingly, Mississippi State went on this ATS run when freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. took over for the injured Blake Sharpen. Van Buren has shown glimpses of his potential, throwing for 1,362 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions over his seven starts.

In fact, the Bulldogs enter this game ranked a respectable 59th in offensive success rate, and Van Buren is a big part of the reason for that.

Also, don’t overlook the fact that Mississippi is loaded with transfers, which means this rivalry game might not have the same hate it has in the past.

There is only one team motivated to play in this game and that is the Bulldogs. A win here would mean so much to the program. Do I think they get it? I’m not sure, but give me Mississippi State to cover another big spread.

Mississippi State vs. Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)

Michael Van Buren Jr. clearly still growing as a quarterback. Still, he’s put up some impressive performances this season — including rushing for 306 yards against UGA, 242 against Texas A&M and 309 against Arkansas. Teams that go from good to good defenses.

I can see a lot of game scripts where Van Buren has to throw it.

If the Bulldogs are competing, that means he’s moving the ball. And if they’re not, he’ll have to throw the ball. In a game where the Bulldogs should be much more motivated than the Rebels, I like Van Buren going over this passing yard stopper.

Meanwhile, just because I like Mississippi State to keep this within the big number doesn’t mean Mississippi won’t move the chains — especially through the air. The Bulldogs rank 133rd in success rate on dropbacks.

So I look at one of the Rebels’ few homegrown talents in wide receiver Cayden Lee. The sophomore has exploded onto the scene for 790 yards this season, with the majority coming in the last five games, topping 81 yards in four of his last five.

Since Lee is one of the few Rebels players who actually cares about the rivalry, let’s take him to go over 80 yards Friday night.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

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More picks from college football and odds from Covers

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Mississippi State vs Mississippi odds

Mississippi State vs Mississippi live odds

Mississippi State vs Mississippi opening odds

• Mississippi State vs Mississippi spread: Mississippi -26
• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi money line: Mississippi State +1,550, Mississippi -3,000
• Mississippi State vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 61.5

Odds provided by BetMGM

Mississippi State vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis

• Mississippi opened this SEC rivalry as 26-point home favorites, and the Rebels are starting to inch higher, creeping up to 26.5 as of Thursday morning.
• There hasn’t been a spread greater than two touchdowns in the Egg Bowl since 2011.
• The total hit the board at 61.5 and has yet to see much action.
• These teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to totals. Mississippi State’s improved offense and non-existent defense have made the Bulldogs a great Over bet at 8-3 O/U. Meanwhile, Mississippi’s elite defense and inconsistent offense have the Rebels at 2-9 O/U.
• 62% of Covers consensus users back Mississippi State on the spread, while 51% take over.

Mississippi State vs Mississippi betting trend to know

The underdog has covered the spread in five of the last eight Egg Bowls. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs Mississippi.

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