College football preview: Big matchups and storylines ahead of Rivalry Week

On By Littum

November 27, 2024, 10:00 a.m. ET

What’s at stake in week 14? Well, it’s Rivalry Week and the final week of the regular season, so tensions are sure to be high with conference championships just around the corner.

No. 3 Texas takes on No. 20 Texas A&M in a conference matchup that has a lot on the line. As the Longhorns look for a spot in the SEC title game, can they drive in the red zone at Kyle Field on Saturday?

The Big 12 enters the week in a four-way tie atop the conference standings. Nine teams still have a chance to reach the Big 12 title game – what are the scenarios for each team?

Our college football experts preview big games and storylines ahead of Week 14.

Jump to a section:
Rivalry Week | Texas-Texas A&M | Major 12 updates
Quotes of the week

Which rivalry has the biggest CFP implications?

Texas at Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC)

Given that Texas A&M can play into the SEC title game with a win against Texas and would certainly be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, it has to be the Longhorns vs. Aggies. A&M can still win the No. 2 seeds. There is no other team playing in a rivalry game with so many options. Then there’s the stakes for Texas.

That’s two wins away from seed no. 2, but if it doesn’t reach the SEC title game, it would no longer be in play. Assuming Texas falls lower than No. 5, if it loses to A&M — which is a safe assumption — the Longhorns would be in line for a difficult first-round matchup. No matter how this game ends, it will affect the playoffs. — Kyle Bonagura

Arizona State at Arizona (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The matchup between Arizona State and Arizona has CFP implications for just one team, but that doesn’t make this game any less important. The Sun Devils need to win out to put themselves in position to get to the Big 12 Championship and move up in the standings to try to secure an automatic berth as conference champions. As it stands right now, the race for the Big 12 title is muddy, with four teams 6-2 in league play entering this weekend. No. 16 Arizona State (9-2) is the highest ranked among them after winning six of its last six games.

The Sun Devils would be heavy favorites to win most of the tiebreaks, if necessary, to secure a spot in the conference championship game. But the only way to be in that mix is ​​to beat rival Arizona, who have won their last two meetings. Even though the Wildcats (4-7) are out of the bowl game and the playoffs, there would be no greater victory than spoiling their rival’s season to take home the Territorial Cup. — Andrea Adelson

South Carolina at Clemson (Saturday, noon on ESPN)

Surprisingly, it could be South Carolina that visits Clemson. The Gamecocks rose to no. 15 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings and has perhaps the best chance among the SEC’s three-loss teams to make the field at 12. Unlike Ole Miss and Alabama, South Carolina doesn’t have a truly bad loss on its profile. The Gamecocks likely would have beaten LSU if starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers wasn’t injured in the first half (or if a few calls had gone their way). They have won five in a row since a 2-point road loss to Alabama, and have recorded decisive victories against No. 20 at Texas A&M (home), Vanderbilt (road) and Oklahoma (road), and a narrow home win against no. 21 in Missouri.

A road win against another CFP-ranked opponent could be enough to get South Carolina ahead of two teams it lost to (Ole Miss, Alabama). Clemson, meanwhile, will have its eyes on Miami-Syracuse game, as a Hurricanes loss would put the Tigers in the ACC title game against SMU, with a CFP berth on the line. — Adam Rittenberg

What must each team do to win?

Texas: The Longhorns have won 10 consecutive true road games under Steve Sarkisian, the longest active streak in the FBS. But the environment inside Kyle Field on Saturday night will be unlike anything these Texas players have ever experienced. Quinn Ewers and his team will need to find a way to play calmly and in control if they are to accomplish the task in College Station.

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne’s efficiency on downfield shots certainly stood out during the Aggies’ 43-41 loss last week. Thorne threw for 301 yards on the night, but got 230 of them on six completions. Sarkisian won’t hesitate to go after Texas A&M’s cornerbacks with his playcalling, but his QB needs to be on point with his deep pass. Ewers is 9-of-31 (29%) on throws of 20 or more yards this season, according to TruMedia, and his 271 passing yards on those throws ranks 121st in the FBS.

One challenge Sarkisian’s Texas offenses have encountered at times in big games: red zone execution. Over the past two seasons, the Longhorns have scored touchdowns on 53% of their red zone opportunities against ranked opponents. This is one of those weeks where settling for too many field goal attempts could end up being costly. — Max Olsen

Texas A&M: Follow the Georgia game plan, which is easier said than done if you’re not Georgia. But to Max’s point, if the Aggies can rediscover their pass rush and pressure Ewers, especially if they can force Texas to try to beat them by throwing the ball, they’ll have options. Against Georgia, Texas was pressured on 39% of dropbacks and Ewers was 5-of-13 for 46 yards on those plays. On the day, he completed just 44.4% of his throws 5 or more yards downfield.

Last week against Kentucky, Ewers was 20-of-21 for 191 yards and two TDs to receivers in space, according to ESPN Research. But on throws against close coverage, he was 0-of-10. Arkansas played a three-safety look against Texas, and Ewers threw for just 176 yards, including going 1-for-2 for minus-8 yards and three forced sacks in the first half.

If the defense can keep it close, the Aggies’ offense will just have to be opportunistic against a really stingy Texas defense that plays with Marcel Reed’s leg and keep Texas off balance. — Dave Wilson

What’s happening in the Big 12?

There are nine — yes, nine — teams that still have a chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to the conference. That manages to be true while the team that has arguably been the best in the conference in November — Kansas, with wins over Iowa State, BYU and Colorado — isn’t among the group.

With Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado tied at 6-2, let’s take a look at the scenarios most likely to come into play.

  • If all four win, the title game will be ASU vs. Iowa State.

  • In a three-team match between ASU, ISU and BYU, BYU is out.

  • In a three-team match between ISU, BYU and Colorado, Colorado is out.

  • In a three-team matchup between ASU, BYU and Colorado, Colorado is out.

In the event of a three-team tie with ASU, ISU and Colorado, things get messy, so here’s the exact language from the Big 12:

Do you have all that? Good. And at the risk of unnecessarily complicating things further, we’ll hit pause before going through all the other options. — Bonagura

Quotes of the week

“Ryan Williams, I mean, yeah, he’s electric. He’s all that and that, but in my eyes, he’s not really anybody to me. Ryan Williams is himself. He’s not a big player to me. . . . Like I said, Bama is a great rival team I’ve played, I’ve never lost to, and I don’t want to lose to Bama while I’m here.. — Auburn freshman linebacker Demarcus Riddick

“I’ve said this from day one: I think when you have two programs as big as these two programs are, as close together as they are, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for them not to play. So it always felt weird not playing and playing for what we play for.. — Texas A&M coach Mike Elko, against Texas this weekend

“I don’t think you get really emotional about things like that. I think you’re a much better coach when you stay calm and you coach your players and you teach your players what it takes to win the game. It’s going to be an emotional game, but I’m not going to get emotional about it. It’s a state championship game. But the game is played between the lines, between the players.” — Georgia coach Kirby Smart, on facing Georgia Tech during Rivalry Week

“There’s nothing that needs to be said. If you watch Godfather 2 and Hyman Roth is talking to Michael Corleone, you know what’s going on in the background — it’s Notre Dame and USC. That’s all we have to say.” — Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden

“We have to have that edge. And we will because we know what’s at stake. We felt what it’s like not to win this game. It’s bad. It’s one of the worst things happened to me in my life, quite honestly. Other than losing my dad and a few other things, like honestly, the worst thing that’s happened season.” – Ohio State coach Ryan Day, against Michigan trailing three in the series

“I said what I had to say about the College Football Playoff after the (Ohio State) game. All I’m going to say is we’re in a good spot. But we’ve got to take care of business. It’s the.” — Indiana Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti

“We’re playing for a trophy. We’re playing Missouri. They’re a rivalry game for us. … They beat the (hell) out of us last year. That should motivate us. The problem is a lot of the kids that are on the team and player, wasn’t here the last year or two.” — Arkansas coach Sam Pittman on motivating his team this week against Missouri this week after two straight losses in the series, including a 48-14 loss last fall