Market share report: Jonnu Smith reaches stud status; Ameer Abdullah is a worthy pickup for Week 13

Goal and touch totals are important, but not as important as market share. “Targets” are mostly a recipient state (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.

What we do is really simple. For pass-catchers, market shares are targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it’s touches broken down by team play from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).

Snap counts, target depth, and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important, but generally won’t be discussed here. It’s pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for evaluating waivers and trades.

Here is the list. Be sure to select the current week, although all weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week trial on a player if you wish. Also note that I have taken great care to provide these statistics weekly. The goal here is to respond quickly to current trends. Annual statistics smooth everything to a somewhat meaningless middle. Like ours Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you must be willing to be very wrong.”

Running Back Touch

Week 12 had a ton of byes, so the column is shorter than usual. You have to think ahead to your Week 14 byes – Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders.

The Saquon Barkley managers want me to say something (Sunday night is not covered in my Sunday takeaway column). He has been a god. If it weren’t for the pressure, Barkley would have a top-five RB season in fantasy history. He was no. 1 in this week’s market report with a 44 percent share of his 30 touches (for over 300 yards).

Nick Chubb converted goal line chances. The efficiency wasn’t there and the Browns’ schedule is brutal, but the No. 6 is no. 6.

Rico Dowdle is over 70 percent lined up now and was no. 7 in the model, although it would be nice if he could finally find the end zone on the ground. Still, he’s a low-end RB2.

Bucky Irving was almost 30 percent, and Rachaad white was not far behind. The Bucs ran their offense through their RBs, although it was likely matchup driven. Irving is a very good, maybe great, player and an elite runner. He does not have the goal line and shares the rest of the work, but he is very difficult to leave on the bench in shallower leagues. That said, he’s not a true RB1, despite his skill.

Ameer Abdullah is worth picking up this week if you’re in a pinch. He’s probably the top waiver pick among RBs who make less than 25 percent of the roster. We don’t know Alexander Mattison’s status, but since he was questionable in Week 12, he’s likely out in Week 13. The QB change won’t help him, but the play script provides a good floor and probably about five catches for 35 yards against the Chiefs, which is a good jumping off point in PPR.

If JK Dobbins is out with his crooked knee, Gus Edwards probably rising to a more prominent role. He will definitely be back on the finish line. I’d prefer Abdullah in PPR assuming the injuries break the right way for both.

Jaylen Warren is someone we typically don’t want to start, but he finished 22nd. The Steelers are now an extremely run-dominant team.

Recipient target

The biggest news in the rankings is David Moore – recorded in less than 1 percent of leagues – no. 8. He had 10 goals – that’s typically an automatic pickup for me. He has had at least 82 percent of the snaps over the past four games and tied a season high against the Chiefs. He has the Bucs this week and once again in our playoffs.

TEA Trey McBridestill without landing, was no. 1 in the report with 40.5 percent.

Do we trust CeeDee Lamb on Thanksgiving? He became no. 2. Cooper Rush looked competent. The problem is, he was drafted to be your best receiver, but now you’d take 15 points, where 30 seems almost out of the question.

Zay flowers is in such a depressed passing offense that he is almost certain to underperform his market share, especially given his TD woes. But you have to play him in Flex10 formats (three WRs and a flex).

Malik Nabers was no. 10 in the report. I don’t understand what he is complaining about. The QBs stink – that’s the problem, not play-calling.

John Smith is a stud now. I can’t believe I’m writing this. He is no. 1 option in the Miami passing game, and teams won’t care about him enough to try to stop him. It’s perfect.

Noah Brown is widely available. He became no. 13 and easily measured Terry McLaurin. Again, if you get 10 goals, I’ll automatically add you from waivers.

Sterling Shepard was 24th in the model but did nothing. still, Mike Evans was back, and he was 23.3 per cent. I hate to discount market share, but I do in this case, although Shepard’s location is noted for you to decide.

I’m more bullish on Joshua Palmerwho had more snaps than Quentin Johnston. Additionally, Johnston had a bad day when he dropped a near-sure TD that would have tied the game in the fourth quarter. Palmer was 30th down and was open and missed on a long play – maybe a TD. He could see increased overall pass volume if Dobbins is injured.

Devaughn Vele was 21.4 percent, about where Palmer ranked. He was also very effective for the Broncos, who should be expected to spoil their woeful running game.

Cole Kmet is now a TE starter in all formats. Book him for five to seven catches again in Week 13.

(Photo by Jonnu Smith: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)