BYU Enemy Scouting Report: Arizona State Sun Devils

Game location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Arizona

Playing time/channel: 12:30 PM PT/3:30 PM ET (ESPN)

Spread: -3 (ASU)

Matchup history: 20-8 (Arizona State)

These two programs shared a conference in the WAC between 1962 and 1977. Arizona State won the majority of these older matchups. They won 15 out of 16 games between 1949 and 1973. These two teams first played each other in 1935.

Lately, BYU has had the upper hand. The Cougars have won the last three in a row, including the last in Provo in 2021. It was the famous “Tyler Allgeier punch” game. BYU will have no such home court advantage in this game.

Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (2nd season)

So far season 2024

Arizona State entered the 2024 season much like BYU did, with no hype and low expectations. In fact, while BYU was picked a lowly 13th in the preseason Big 12 media poll, the Sun Devils looked up at BYU when they were dead last 16.

That was before the season started. Like BYU, they have proved all the doubters wrong. They started 5-1, including wins over BYU’s last two opponents in Kansas and Utah. They just controlled the whole match against no. 20 Kansas State away and won 24-14. Now they are in the driver’s seat. Like BYU, they control their own destiny for a major 12-title slot. The winner of this game is in an almost locked-in position for Arlington.

When Arizona State has the ball

ASU boasts one of the most exciting players in the entire Big 12 in running back Cam Skattebo. He is one of just four players in the conference to have already surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in 2024. He is second in the conference and fourth in the entire FBS in total yards from scrimmage. The ASU offense runs right through Skattebo. That’s where BYU needs to use their energy — somehow slowing him down.

Even if they do, quarterback Sam Leavitt has been one of the more efficient passers in the conference. He has found the recipient Jordyn Tyson nine times for a touchdown.

This may be BYU’s biggest test yet. Arizona State is as balanced as any team in the conference on offense.

When BYU has the ball

Let’s start by never making another fade pass at the finish line. In all seriousness, BYU needs to massively improve in the red zone. They cannot continue to average an offensive touchdown per game and expect to go very far. Jake Retzlaff needs to take care of the ball, plain and simple. In the hostile environment they will encounter in Tempe, things could snowball if the offense turns it around. If he can stay in front of the chains with some key throws to his talented receivers and maybe a big conversion or two with his legs, the Cougars have an advantage.

The best medicine for all this is a solid game. The offensive line must be up to the challenge to give LJ Martin some running lanes. Two of BYU’s best offensive performances this season, against Oklahoma State and UCF, saw Martin surpass 100 rushing yards. This feels like a game where it’s crucial that Martin gets to that benchmark, meaning BYU controlled the line of scrimmage.

How BYU can win

BYU may not be able to afford a single turnover. This will be a hostile, hungry crowd. They can sense, as can BYU, that a spot in the Big 12 title game is at hand. This serves as a playoff game for the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington. The offense cannot afford to perform as it has the last two games.

BYU must face the daunting stakes on the road after laying an egg all at home in Kansas. They will be tested to their limits mentally and physically. Can BYU bounce back from that loss to win on the road against No. 21 ASU? It would be perhaps Kalani Sitake’s best work yet as head coach at BYU.

Prediction: Arizona State 27, BYU 20