SEC standings, tiebreaker scenarios to clinch title game in Week 13

On By Littum

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With two weeks left in the college football regular season, the peak is off The Southeastern Conference standings continues to be congested — so much so that there is still no clear-cut conference champion in the standings going into Week 13.

And that’s something that might not be unlocked until the 12th hour comes next Saturday.

Going into week 13, no. 3 Texas and no. 14 Texas A&M remains tied for first place in the standings with 5-1 records in SEC play. Both Longhorn and the Aggies are set to start in Week 14 for the first time since 2011.

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But the road to Atlanta for the SEC championship game doesn’t stop at the state of Texas, as three other teams remain in contention for the title game. no. 8 Georgia is in third place at 6-2 in SEC play following the win no. 11 Tennesseenow 5-2. Then there is No. 7 Alabama and no. 9 Miss Oleboth of which are tied for fifth place with 4-2.

Even though the Vols are fourth in the SEC and not officially out of contention for the SEC Championship Game, Tennessee’s road to Atlanta is a proverbial Hail Mary away from becoming a reality.

The winner of the SEC Championship Game will not only claim conference supremacy, but also an automatic bid and potential first-round bye in the new College Football Playoff. So, needless to say, there is a lot at stake in winning the SEC Championship.

Here’s an updated look at the SEC standings and tiebreaker scenarios heading into Week 13, including specific scenarios for the handful of teams that could appear in the SEC Championship Game:

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SEC standings tiebreaker

When divisions were removed for the first time since 1991—due to the expansion of the league with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma—the SEC announced six new tiebreakers should there be a tie in the standings at the end of the regular season.

Here are the six tiebreakers, according to the SEC:

  1. Intercompetition among equal teams
  2. Record vs. all regular conference opponents among tied teams
  3. Record against the highest (best) ranked common conference opponent in the conference standings and continue through the conference standings among tied teams
  4. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams
  5. Limited relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among tied teams
  6. Random draw of the tied teams

As noted by the SEC, a clear conference champion is determined at the end of the regular season. If two or more teams are tied for second place, the conference champion will be the home team in the SEC championship game and the tiebreaker scenarios will be used to determine the other team.

If two teams are tied for first place in the SEC at the end of the regular season, both teams will qualify for the SEC Championship Game.

SEC tiebreaker scenarios

Five SEC teams remain in contention for a spot in the SEC Championship on Dec. 8 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, per bball.notnothing.net.

Here are the easiest (and least stressful) paths for the five teams to play for the SEC championship:

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Texas

  • Beat Kentucky AND Texas A&M

Texas controls its own SEC championship destiny. If the Longhorns win their two remaining games against Kentucky and Texas A&M, they are in.

Texas A&M

Much like rival Texas, the Aggies need no help making the SEC championship game. They only need to beat Auburn in Week 13 and Texas in Week 14 to make their first-ever conference title game appearance since joining the SEC in 2012.

Alabama

  • Beat Oklahoma AND Auburn
  • Missouri beats Mississippi State OR Arkansas

Alabama has a path to the SEC Championship Game, but it’s not as straightforward compared to the Longhorns and Aggies’. The Crimson Tide not only must win out, but also must receive some help from Missouri, which must win at least one of its two remaining games vs. Mississippi State and Arkansas.

If that happens, Alabama will punch its ticket to Atlanta based on the fourth SEC tiebreaker: conference opponent winning percentage (either 50% or 48.4%, depending on whether Missouri wins one or both of its remaining games). A loss by the Crimson Tide over the next two weeks would eliminate it from contention.

Georgia

Georgia, which has already completed the SEC portion of its schedule, can only hope to play for the conference title based on the results of other teams in the last two weeks. If the Bulldogs get the help they need, they could face Texas for the second time this season or Texas A&M.

Here’s what needs to happen for Georgia to make an appearance in the SEC Championship:

To face Texas A&M:

  • Texas A&M wins OR loses to either Auburn OR Texas
  • Alabama loses to either Oklahoma OR Auburn
  • Miss Ole lose OR lose to either Florida OR Mississippi State

Meeting Texas:

  • Texas beats Kentucky and Texas A&M
  • Texas A&M loses to Auburn AND Texas
  • Ole Miss and Alabama lose one of their last two games

REQUIRED READING: Rooting for Notre Dame? It shouldn’t be hard for Tennessee football fans | Toppmeyer

Miss Ole

  • Beat Florida AND Mississippi State
  • Texas A&M loses to Auburn AND Texas
  • Alabama loses to Oklahoma OR Auburn
  • Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt

Then there’s Ole Miss, who, like Georgia, would need some level of chaos to break out to slide into the conference title game. The simplest path for the Rebels is to win out and hope for several big upsets, including Texas A&M to go winless vs. Auburn and Texas; Alabama to lose to either Oklahoma or Auburn; and for Vanderbilt to beat Tennessee.

There is also a scenario where four SEC teams finish in a five-way tie for second place in the conference standings, with Alabama earning the final spot in the SEC Championship through the tiebreaker procedure.

Best odds to win SEC championship game

User ESPN’s College Football Power Index as a database, Alabama has the best chance to win the SEC Championship.

Here’s a look at the full overview of SEC teams’ chances to win the title game according to ESPN’s FPI, which takes into account the chances of playing in the SEC championship game and winning it:

  1. Alabama (39.5%)
  2. Texas (39.2%)
  3. Georgia (17%)
  4. Texas A&M (3.4%)
  5. Ole Miss (0.9%)
  6. Tennessee (0.1%)

The SEC standings enter Week 13

Here’s a look at how the SEC standings look in Week 13:

SEC record in parentheses

  • T-1. Texas (5-1)
  • T-1. Texas A&M (5-1)
  • 3. Georgia (6-2)
  • 4. Tennessee (5-2)
  • T-5. Alabama (4-2)
  • T-5. Ole Miss (4-2)