SEC Championship Game Scenario outlined for each team

What happens if Alabama loses on Saturday? Or if Florida beats Ole Miss? What if Kentucky upsets Texas? Or if Auburn defeats Texas A&M?

As difficult and daunting as it may seem, let this helpful guide below help you as best we can with the hypothetical SEC Championship Game scenarios for all the action in Week 13.

What happens if Ole Miss beats Florida?

If the Ole Miss Rebels defeat the Florida Gators on Saturday, we still have the distinct possibility of a five-team (or six) tie for second place in the SEC. The Rebels would prefer to knock off the Gators in Gainesville, but the entire Florida program has seemingly turned a corner since QB DJ Lagway returned from injury and announced the retention of head coach Billy Napier.

MORE: Full SEC Football Tiebreaking Procedure

In all likelihood, though, it’s a rebel victory that continues the chance for mayhem, and that’s why we’re all here. This is the most likely scenario out of Gainesville on Saturday and the one that helps Ole Miss stay alive.

What happens if Florida beats Ole Miss?

This one is simple: If Ole Miss loses to Florida, they’re out of the SEC Championship Game picture, and they’re also more than likely out of the College Football Playoffs. Ole Miss would have three conference losses, and as it stands right now, Georgia has finished conference play with two losses, and the most losses Texas A&M and/or Texas can combine for is two losses.

Any team that reaches three losses at this point is subsequently eliminated. But it’s not if Florida defeats Ole Miss.

The Gators are an unusual opponent in the tiebreaking scenario between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide. If it comes to tiebreaker no. 4 of the SEC Tiebreaking procedures, it will lead to comparison of the conference opponent’s SEC winning percentage. Before Week 13, Alabama owns the tiebreaker between all potentially tied teams.

But if Florida defeats Ole Miss, it gives Georgia a leg up on Alabama by giving them an extra win over one of their opponents, not helping the Tide opponent’s winning percentage either. Georgia fans – you’re actually rooting for Florida here.

What happens if Kentucky beats Texas?

If the Kentucky Wildcats beat the Texas Longhorns, pandemonium is set to follow. The Longhorns control their destiny and can advance to the SEC Championship Game. However, if Kentucky were to upset Texas, it would put the Longhorns on the brink of elimination against Texas A&M in Week 14.

MORE: Latest SEC Championship game scenarios

At worst, that would put Texas in a tie scenario with Georgia, the vast majority of which would end up with Texas missing the SEC Championship Game altogether. As nice as that sounds to Georgia fans, you’re hoping for Texas to win this one to make the tiebreaking scenario for second place a little less cloudy, as a Longhorn win would also increase the winning percentage of Georgia’s opponents. But again, that lowers it since Kentucky is also an unusual opponent for Georgia’s. It’s a lose-lose here for UGA.

What happens if Texas beats Kentucky?

If the Longhorns knock off Kentucky like the odds say they will, they will continue to hold their own destiny. Texas is a heavy favorite over Kentucky, but can’t get caught looking ahead to A&M.

A Texas win gives them the advantage of at least finishing tied for second in the SEC with Georgia and a handful of other possible teams. Beating Kentucky doesn’t affect much more than that, other than helping boost Georgia’s resume, as mentioned above.

What happens if Alabama beats Oklahoma?

Similar to Texas beating Kentucky, if the Alabama Crimson Tide beat the Oklahoma Sooners like they should, it keeps Alabama alive and continues to allow for more mayhem to unfold. Alabama would have two conference losses entering the Iron Bowl in Week 14 with a win against Oklahoma.

The Tide have to win out and hope they can find a way to knock off Georgia in the tiebreaking scenarios, but if the teams were all tied right now, ‘Bama would be in. Beating Oklahoma just means we’re still on that road.

MORE: Simulate the College Football season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Alabama is looking for Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU to win a combined five games to be ahead of Georgia in the fourth tiebreaking scenario.

What happens if Oklahoma beats Alabama?

If Oklahoma beats Alabama, that’s it for Alabama. The Crimson Tide would be eliminated from the SEC Championship Game by virtue of three conference losses and likely pushed out of playoff contention as well.

Oklahoma’s winning percentage isn’t factored into most teams, but Ole Miss and Tennessee, who are alive as longshots, would reap the most benefits here.

What happens if Texas A&M beats Auburn?

If the Texas A&M Aggies defeat the Auburn Tigers, they’ll set up a win-and-you’re-in game against Texas next week. The Aggies can almost clinch at least a tie for second in the SEC with a win over Auburn.

Other than that, A&M didn’t play any of the other teams in contention for the tiebreaker, and their record is seemingly unrelated and not worthy of value to other teams if they defeat Auburn. Georgia and Alabama, however, having Auburn on their schedule, would see their conference opponents’ SEC winning percentage take a hit with Auburn losing another.

What happens if Auburn beats Texas A&M?

If Auburn beats Texas A&M, it sets up an elimination game for A&M in Week 14. In this scenario, however, A&M won’t be completely eliminated, as they would take their second loss and must defeat Texas next week to win. a potential six-way tie for first place in the conference.

Auburn beating A&M could cause the most havoc, especially if A&M loses but then beats Texas. The same could be said if Kentucky beats Texas, but then beats A&M the following week. In those situations, we would have at least three teams tied with two conference losses with Georgia and whoever else finishes with two losses between Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss added to the picture.

Who are Georgia fans rooting for?

Right now, if we get into the tiebreaking scenarios between all five (or six) teams vying for second place, it is very likely that this will come down to the fourth tiebreaking scenario as stated by the SEC. In that scenario, each SEC team in the even bracket is ranked by their opponent’s winning percentage in SEC games this season.

And right now, Georgia is one game behind Alabama in that tiebreaking scenario.

So Georgia fans, you hope your unusual opponents for Alabama all win this season. Let me be clear, Georgia fans, you want the following teams to win, even though four of them are set to split road trips this weekend:

• Mississippi State (vs. Missouri)
• Texas (vs. Kentucky; vs. Texas A&M)
• Kentucky (vs. Texas)
• Florida (vs. Ole Miss)
• Ole Miss (vs. Florida – or specifically vs. Mississippi State in Week 14)

Their five uncommon opponents will split their games, meaning they will add at least three losses to their combined opponents’ SEC winning percentage by the end of the season.

Georgia fans also root for Alabama’s uncommon opponents to take losses. That means the Bulldogs root against:

• Vanderbilt (vs. LSU; vs. Tennessee)
• South Carolina (does not play another conference game)
• Missouri (vs. Mississippi State)
• LSU (vs. Vanderbilt; vs. Oklahoma)

Like Georgia, Alabama’s uncommon opponents will split at least one game here, meaning they have to take at least one more loss on their schedule.

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As clear as we can be here, Georgia fans, if you want to knock out opponents and help your own cause in the tiebreakers, you’ll be cheering for:

• Mississippi State
• Texas
• Florida
• LSU
• Vanderbilt

Each of these teams winning in Week 13 will help Georgia’s cause. But the simplest case is this:

• Texas wins
• Texas A&M loses
• Texas then beats Texas A&M
• Alabama loses once
• Ole Miss loses once
• Tennessee loses once

That scenario gives the Dawgs the second seed outright and puts them against Texas in the SEC Championship Game.

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