who is (projected) in, who is out

On November 24, 2024By Littum

Half the fun is over, half the fun is still waiting RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia.

The final of eight autumn events, as well as the last official event of the 2024 season, means jobs are on the way this week. Callum Tarren, who is T-9 and expected no. 170, is resigned to the fact that he will have to do something very special to keep his job next season.

“I know I need an incredible week to even have a sniff at being a PGA Tour member next year, so I’ve kind of accepted my fate, but maybe it’s freed me up to play some free golf, which I haven’t been in a while,” he said. “So I’ll keep doing what I’m doing and see what happens on Sunday.”

Joel Dahmen entered the week ranked No. 124 in the FedEx Cup Fall and was on the wrong side of the cutline until he birdied Nos. 14 and 16 to sit on the cutline. At 18, he limped with his 40-foot birdie putt, leaving a 5-foot knee putter. Miss that and he would miss the cut and his chances of finishing in the top 125 would be slim to none. Dahmen made the clutch putt and survived the cut. He’s expected to drop out of the 125, but he has two more rounds to charge up the rankings, and that’s all that mattered Friday.

RSM Classic: Leaderboard | Photos

“I still have more to write this weekend, but without having the opportunity to play this weekend, my story would be a lot shorter this year, I’d say,” he said. “There’s still work to be done. It wasn’t the game-winner, it was like a half-court shot to get us level at half-time.”

Dahmen summed up the pressure he has faced as he tries to secure full status for next season.

“When I missed the cut in Bermuda last week, stress has been high. You don’t sleep very well,” he said. “It’s like you’re sleeping at the head of a major every night. It feels like that, but a little more stressful than that.”

The Top 125 isn’t the only bubble we’ll see this weekend. Here’s a closer look at who’s in and who’s out for other levels of status.

Nico Echavarria of Colombia plays a shot on the seventh hole during the first round of The RSM Classic 2024 on the Seaside Course at Sea Island Resort. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

No. 1-50 in the FedEx Cup standings through the Tour Championship locked up their positions and guaranteed entry into all Signature events next season. 51 and over carry their FedEx Cup points into the fall; No. 51-60 through the FedEx Cup Fall will qualify for two signature events in 2025 via the Aon Next 10: the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational, both held in February.

Who is there? Two players are currently expected to move into the no. 51-60. Patrick Fishburn, the 36-hole leader, is expected to jump from No. 87 to 56, and Kevin Yu, currently T-9, is expected to jump from No. 61 to 59.

Ben Griffin managed the number and is expected to remain at no. 57, while Nico Echavarria is currently T-6 and projected at no. 58. The last man on the right side of the cut off is currently expected to be Tom Kim, who is not in the field.

Justin Rose lines up a putt on day one of the 2024 Hong Kong Open at Fanling Golf Club in Hong Kong. (Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images)

With Fishburn and Yu currently projected to climb the No. 51-60, that means two pros are out. None of these players are on the field this week and left their chances to others. Nick Taylor is expected to drop from no. 58 to be the odd man out at 61, while Justin Rose, who started the week in the hot seat at no. 60, expected to finish as no. 62.

Daniel Berger of the United States watches his shot from the fourth tee during the first round of the 2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Making the top 125 is a big deal and means a player will be exempt from all games and the Players Championship next season.

Currently expected to move into the Top 125 is Michael Thorbjornsen, who is T-4, which has him expected to rise from no. 138 to 119, and Daniel Berger, who is T-17 and expected to move from no. 127 to 120 Asked how much he thinks about the top 125, Thorbjørnsen said: “I don’t think about it at all. I’m just trying to play some good golf this weekend.”

Dahmen, projected no. 126, Henrik Norlander, planned no. 128, and Hayden Springer, projected no. 129, all cleared the cut at 1-under 141. They are bubbles expected to burst, but they still have two rounds to change their fortunes.

Wesley Bryan of the United States lines up a putt on the 18th green during the second round of The RSM Classic 2024 on the Seaside Course at Sea Island Resort. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Wesley Bryan entered the week as the familiar Bubble Boy at no. 125 but he missed the cut and his bubble is probably burst. Data Golf has Bryan’s chances of finishing 125th at just 1 percent.

He is not the only one fighting for a Tour card who succumbed to the pressure.

Sam Ryder, projected no. 124, and Zac Blair, projected no. 125, both missed the cut and have to hope they stick around this weekend. Data Golf has Blair with a 50 percent chance of hanging around. One player who already knows his destiny is Dylan Wu. He was expected to move into the top 125 after an opening-round 68, but ballooned to a 78 on Friday and missed the cut. He is expected to be the no. 134. No. 126-150 will earn full Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on Tour next season.

Bud Cauley of the United States gestures on the eighth hole during the second round of The RSM Classic 2024 on the Plantation Course at Sea Island Resort. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Conditional status is better than no status at all. Joseph Bramlett made the cut and should be safe — he’s projected no. 147. But Trace Crowe (148) and Troy Merritt (149) both missed the cut and will have to wait and see if they stick around. Chesson Hadley was not in the field this week and is expected to be the No. 150.

Ryan Moore entered the week ranked No. 150, but missed the cut and is currently projected as no. 151.

Those with the best chance to climb inside the top 150 include Bud Cauley, who sits at 4 under at T-24 and projected at No. 152. Don’t count Kevin Chappell, who is 3-under and T-32 and projected at no. 154.

William McGirt of the United States looks on from the ninth green during the second round of The RSM Classic 2024 on the Plantation Course at Sea Island Resort. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Top 200 bubble is crucial for entry into the final stage of Q-School and a chance to win one of five cards back and at least some status on the Korn Ferry Tour. Will McGirt made the cut and is currently projected to be the no. 199. Cody Gribble missed the cut but is expected to remain the No. 200. Blaine Hale Jr. (201), Richy Werenski (204) and Bill Haas (205) all missed the cut.