Indiana at Ohio State Betting, Predictions, Odds, Picks, Lines, Projections

The College Football Playoff field is still taking shape, and this weekend will be huge in terms of who’s in and who’s out. The biggest treat on Saturday is a matchup of top-five teams, as the undefeated No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers (10-0) visit No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) in a Big Ten game.

The Hoosiers can clinch a Big Ten championship berth with a win, while the favored Buckeyes (-13.5) must win to stay alive in the race for Indianapolis. Indiana is an underdog for the first time this season and puts its undefeated ATS record on the road as Ohio State looks to extend its 31-game unbeaten streak against the Hoosiers.

This will be the fourth time an AP top-five team has been a double-digit underdog in a regular-season game over the past 10 seasons (previous teams are 1-2 ATS) and the 15th time over that span when including the postseason- games (underdogs) are 4-10 ATS).

As things stand heading into the weekend, Ohio State is a 3-1 favorite to win the national championship (-8000 to reach the CFP). Despite its undefeated mark, Indiana is the ninth pick at 25-1 (-350 to reach the CFP).

Kickoff from Columbus, Ohio is at noon ET Saturday on Fox.

Odds current as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Ohio State -13.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -550, Indiana +380
Above/below: 51.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Notice in the first half: Ohio State -7.5 (+102), Indiana +7.5 (-125)
Money line in the first half: Ohio State -420, Indiana +290
Total points in the first half: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Maldonado’s pick: Indiana +13.5

Despite Indiana’s 10-0 record and dominant performance, the betting line moving from +11.5 to +13.5 in Ohio State’s favor reflects an astonishing level of disrespect for the Hoosiers, suggesting oddsmakers and punters remain skeptical of their ability to compete with the perennial powerhouse. Buckeyes.

Indiana’s best chance to cover the double-digit spread lies in taking advantage of quarterback Will Howard’s limitations. While the Hoosiers’ offense will play a role, their defense holds the key to keeping this game competitive.

Howard struggles to outrun edge rushers, which presents an opportunity for Indiana’s defense, especially Mikail Kamara. The Hoosiers’ outstanding defensive end leads the Big Ten with 9.5 sacks and could be a game changer if they are able to generate pressure and force Howard into rash decisions. Howard’s vulnerability, which often falters when faced with an aggressive pass rush, has led to a troubling number of turnovers, most notably seven fumbles in the 2024 season alone, tied for the fifth-most among quarterbacks.

Howard’s struggles extend beyond ball security to accuracy. When forced out of the pocket, Howard’s accuracy diminishes significantly, with his struggles maintaining vision downfield leading to inaccurate passes ranging from submissions to wild overthrows. On passes of 10+ yards, Howard completes just 59% outside the numbers and 68% between the numbers, suggesting limitations in arm strength or timing on longer throws to the sideline.

To exploit these weaknesses, Indiana’s defense can design blitz packages that push Howard to his non-dominant side, use edge rushers to contain him while applying interior pressure. Linebacker Aiden Fisher can be used as a spy to track Howard and focus on tighter coverage in the middle of the field while challenging the Buckeyes’ QB to rely more on less effective outside throws.

While an outright win might be unlikely, Indiana’s focus on exploiting Howard’s weaknesses gives the Hoosiers a solid chance to keep the game within the spread. The key lies in consistently executing their pressure packages and taking advantage of forced errors.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Indiana is 8-2 ATS, tied with Arizona State and Colorado for the best record among Power 4 teams.

• The Hoosiers are one of eight teams undefeated ATS on the road; their +19.8 coverage margin per road game is third best in FBS.

• This is Indiana’s first game as an underdog.

• Indiana is 3-9 ATS against ranked teams since 2021, third-worst in the FBS over that span (minimum 10 games).

• Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in conference play, tied for second-worst in the FBS (only Florida State is worse).

• The Buckeyes are 5-10 ATS against top-10 teams over the past five seasons, third-worst in the FBS (min. 10 games).

• Ohio State has a 31 game unbeaten streak vs. Indiana since 1989 (30-0-1) and is 17-12-2 ATS over that span.

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