Eknath Shinde now where Uddhav Thackeray was in ’19, by a big margin

The big question now is whether the BJP will push for the post of Chief Minister or let Eknath Shinde continue

Mumbai:

Four hours into the counting of votes for the Maharashtra assembly polls, the BJP-led Mahayuti looks set for a landslide victory, bouncing back from its setback in the Lok Sabha polls this year.

Mahayuti is currently leading in 221 out of 288 assembly seats and scored a comprehensive victory over the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi bloc, which is lagging far behind with 56. The BJP is running the Mahayuti show, leading in 124 of the 148 seats it contested. . It has been well supported by its allies – Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Both have surged ahead of their rival factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in an election seen as a battle to prove which faction is the ‘real Sena’ and the ‘real NCP’.

While the Mahayuti camp has much to celebrate today, complications await behind the scenes. And these complications are similar to those that emerged after the 2019 Maharashtra elections, also won by the NDA.

Who will be the Chief Minister

The big question that emerges after the NDA’s victory is – who will be the next Maharashtra Chief Minister? Both Mr. Fadnavis and Mr. Shinde cruised to comfortable victories in Nagpur South-West and Kopdi Pachpakhadi seats respectively.

The BJP is the anchor of the Mahayuti alliance and has achieved the best strike rate among all NDA allies. Against this background, the party is likely to push for the post of chief minister, with senior leader Devendra Fadnavis as its clear choice. But the Shinde Sena can dig in its heels and argue that Mahayuti went into the election with Eknath Shinde as the face of the government and that the state government’s policies and promises played a key role behind the massive mandate in this election.

Earlier, when the rebellion led by Mr. Shinde brought down the Uddhav Thackeray government and split the Shiv Sena, the BJP had taken the moral high ground by giving up the post of chief minister. But with over 120 MLAs in their kitty, they may not be so generous this time.

With all three allies appearing in their strongholds, this verdict also sets the stage for tough negotiations over ministerial posts.

A repeat from 2019?

Interestingly, the Maharashtra result might just create a situation similar to the post-poll scenario five years back. In the 2019 state polls, the BJP had won 105 seats and the undivided Shiv Sena 56. After the results, the differences emerged over the post of chief minister. While Uddhav Thackeray claimed an understanding of a rotating chief ministership, the BJP denied any such pact. Eventually, the Sena pulled the plug, ending one of the most enduring alliances in the BJP’s history. Five years later, there are many more players in Maharashtra’s political landscape, with two factions each of the Sena and the NCP fighting an identity battle. And this time, as the numbers stand, BJP and Eknath Shinde are where BJP and Uddhav Thackeray were five years ago. The question is, will Mr. Shinde blink or will this victory create a bigger challenge for BJP? Giving up the post of chief minister can be seen as a step backwards, and pushing for it risks a rift in the alliance. However, there is a big difference compared to 2019. With Ajit Pawar’s NCP putting up a good show, the BJP only needs one out of its two allies to reach the magic figure. The Shinde Sena will keep this in mind as it pushes for any trade.

Speaking to the media as the trends showed a clear NDA edge, Mr. Shinde a cautious answer to the Chief Minister question. “We will sit and decide,” he said, adding, “(Prime Minister Narendra) Modji is our senior.”

The Maha Vikas Aghadi subplot

A big story in this election is the stunning setback suffered by the Congress-led INDIA alliance, which won 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the general elections months ago. Maha Vikas Aghadi is now leading in just 52 seats, with the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) ahead in 19, 19 and 14 seats respectively.

On its star show in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had bargained hard to get the best deal during seat-sharing. With the opposition party failing to convert these contests into victories, the Congress will be on the receiving end of criticism and may be accused of pulling down the alliance. Politically, it is a massive setback for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in the battle for their party’s identity. The two leaders, who have been trying to recover from the mutiny that split their party, now face an identity crisis as the breakaway factions score much better than their camps.