Michigan State football vs. Purdue: Scouting report and prediction

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Free Press sports writer Chris Solari looks forward to Michigan State Football’s visit from Purdue on Friday night.

Fast facts

Matchups: Michigan State (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) vs. Purdue (1-9, 0-7).

Kickoff: 8pm Friday; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

TV/radio: Fox, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Spartans before 13½.

Michigan State football vs. Purdue Accessibility Report

MSU: Out: CB Charles Brantley (lower left leg), S Malik Spencer (undisclosed), CB Chance Rucker (right arm), DB Dillon Tatum (lower body), LS Kaden Schickel (left leg, season), DE Avery Dunn (season, undisclosed) , TE Michael Masunas (shoulder, season), OL Kristian Phillips (left leg, season), OL Gavin Broscious (lower left leg, season), DB Khalil Majeed (lower body, season). QUESTIONABLE: DB Caleb Gash (right leg). Questionable: DB Armorion Smith (undeclared), DT Jalen Satchell (undeclared), LB Wayne Matthews III (undeclared), WR Jaron Glover (undeclared).

Purdue: Questionable: DL Damarjhe Lewis (undisclosed), WR Jayden Dixon-Veal (undisclosed), TE George Burhenn (undisclosed).

Scouting report

When MSU has the ball: Aidan Chiles has faced a constant barrage of pressure all season behind the Spartans’ leaky offensive line, with Illinois sacking the sophomore quarterback five times in Saturday’s 38-16 loss in Champaign. MSU has allowed 32 sacks this season, which is tied for 13th most in the Football Bowl Subdivision, and 29 against Big Ten opponents. That includes 26 sacks in their last six games. Still, Chiles managed to produce one of his most efficient games of the season against the Illini, going 23-of-40 for 256 yards and two touchdowns through the air while rushing seven times for 71 yards before the 31-yard loss on bags. He accounted for nearly every facet of the MSU offense in the loss, with running backs Nate Carter and Kay’ron Lynch-Adams again shut down (14 carries and 45 yards combined) as the offensive line failed to provide breathing room on passes. Chiles used Carter out of the backfield in the passing game for five catches, including a touchdown, while spreading the ball between young receivers Nick Marsh and Aziah Johnson and veteran Montorie Foster, with Jaron Glover again limited by injury. The Spartans will try to solve the problems against one Boilermakers defense that ranks 121st out of 133 FBS teams in total defense (455.7 yards allowed) and has been outscored 94-10 the past two games by Ohio State and Penn State. It’s pick your poison on how to beat Purdue, which ranks 119th against the run (203.3 yards) and through the air is 108th in passing yards allowed (252.4) and 132nd in pass efficiency defense. The Boilermakers are 130th in points allowed per game. game (38.9) and is 130th in third-down conversions (48.8%) and last in fourth-down defense (69.2%).

When Purdue has the ball: The Spartans’ inability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks remains a major issue. MSU went without a sack for the sixth straight game at Illinois and failed to generate a turnover for the third straight game after creating nine total and at least one a game through the first seven. Since a shutout of Prairie View A&M on Sept. 14, MSU has given up an average of 27.6 points in losing six of its last seven games. As big of an issue as the lack of pass rush remains, the injury toll in the secondary also puts it at risk over the final two games with a number of younger and inexperienced players stepping into key roles without the season’s starting cornerbacks Charles Brantley and Chance Rucker , starting safety Malik Spencer and versatile Dillon Tatum the biggest losses among them. If there’s a respite in a short week, it’s going against a Purdue offense that’s one of the nation’s worst this season. The Boilermakers are tied for 128th in scoring (17.2 points per game), 122nd in total offense (318.6 yards) and 128th in first downs (151). Purdue also ranks No. 118 in third-down conversions (33.6) while not being overly penalized (84th in fewest penalty yards at 55.5 and tied for 56th in fewest flags per game at 5.7).

Know the enemy

House of Cards: Quarterback Hudson Card has been the main man for a Boilermaker offense that also occasionally rotates in backup Ryan Browne. Card, who transferred to Purdue from Texas in 2023, is completing 59.7% of his passes and averaging 158.0 yards per carry. game with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Browne, a redshirt freshman who was born in Clarkston, has played in seven games and has completed 40 of 68 passes for 513 yards with four touchdowns and an interception while also rushing 43 times for 165 yards. Card was 11-for-20 for 151 yards with no interceptions or TDs in a 49-10 loss to Penn State on Saturday, while Browne threw a TD pass in the fourth quarter.

Some races: The Boilermakers have done their best work on the ground, averaging 137.5 yards per carry. ground game to rank 92nd nationally. In addition to Browne being a threat, running backs Devin Mockobee and Reggie Love III have combined to average 102.2 yards on the 194 carries between them with five rushing TDs.

Pressure points: Purdue has generated just 18 sacks on defense, although the only teams that have stopped the Boilermakers from getting at least one sack have been Wisconsin and Penn State. Senior linebacker Kydran Jenkins leads with 5½ sacks, while sophomore defensive end Will Heldt has five, both homegrown Purdue products. The Boilermakers have just two sacks in their last three games on defense, while their offensive line has given up 12 of their 27 sacks in their last four games.

Chris Solaris two cents

Ticking clock: Despite being pretty solid all season, MSU’s defense has struggled to generate sacks and turnovers. The Spartans have gone 377 minutes, 51 seconds without a sack since defensive end Anthony Jones got the last one in the third quarter at Boston College on Sept. 21. MSU hasn’t forced a turnover since Nikai Martinez’s interception against Iowa on 19 October a span of 190:52 on the course. And the Spartans have created just one forced fumble recovery all season, with Wayne Matthews III fumbling the ball in the first quarter at BC and 410:11 in the game since going without another.

Another evening: The Spartans will play their record seventh night game of the season. With next week’s regular season finale at 3:30 p.m. home kickoff against Rutgers, it also marks the first time in MSU history that the Spartans have kicked off all of their games after 3 p.m. 14th to get one, though their pitch lends itself to another night game in mid-December if they win their last two to clinch a spot.

Forecast

Chiles and his receivers have a big day in the air against the porous Purdue secondary. It also opens things up on the ground for Carter and Lynch-Adams to produce a critical second-half victory to set up a win-or-stay game against Rutgers in eight days. The choice: MSU 28, Purdue 13.

Contact Chris Solari: [email protected]. Follow him @chrissolari.

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